Strategic Opportunities in Social Recreational Dance Markets

Vision

My fundamental vision is: 

Social recreational dancing easily has the potential to be a much more significant activity than it now is.

Social recreational dancing is currently realizing only a very small part of its potential.

In business terms, social recreational dancing could easily be a much larger industry than it now is.

Contra check

Since SRDI is a think tank, and I am an analyst and evangelist, I will frequently apply some thinking and analysis to the assertions, propositions and conclusions I proffer.

A direct counter-proposition to my vision statement would be:  Social recreational dancing does not have potential to be any more significant than it now is.

Since I am a former debater, who is trained to be able to make a good case for either side of a question, I could develop an argument that social recreational dancing does not have more potential. But since I'm not seeing  any value in doing so, that would be a total time-waste.

If you would like to make such a case, please add Comments; I would be very much interested in such a discussion.

I do have many cautions and yeah-but's in mind for many of the assertions I include in this presentation.

I am very clear that opportunity-seeking in social-recreational dance ventures is not a no-brainer, and that there are real bear-traps; but overall, the potential for significant business opportunity in social recreational dance is great and not particularly difficult to realize.

Probabilities

Another check on my vision would be to consider the probabilities.  Am I absolutely, 100%, certain of my vision statement?  That "social recreational dancing easily has the potential to be a much more significant activity than it now is".

Or is this sort of a 50-50 (equal chances), or 60-40 (more likely than not), proposition for me?  No; this is neither "in the middle" nor "somewhat more likely" for me.

In my view, the probability that my vision statement is accurate is near certain, 90% at least and as much as 99%.

Happen by itself?

Will it happen by itself?  No.

Some dance booms will happen by themselves; just as they have been happening all along.  But dance booms that flame out are not what this presentaion is about.

My vision is that social recreational dancing easily has the potential to be a much more significant activity than it now is, not that it has the destiny to be.  The distinction is that it can be, not that it will be.

In this presentation I point to several other industries that were not going anywhere, until some analysts, strategists, thinkers saw the potential and how it could it be realized; and then they set out to accomplish it.

Industry transformation processes

Industry revitalization occurs in different ways; I address several of them.

One common process in which industries become transformed from stagnant or declining is through the introduction of something new that works well and brings in new customers - followed by imitation of that new thing, which continues the growth, followed by more imitation, and growth, and yet even more imitation, which continues the growth even further, until the revitalized industry proceeds through its new growth phase and becomes mature again.

The pattern of innovation followed by imitation does of course not always work; because of course the innovation doesn't always work; and because the process can go off track and spin down at any point in the process.

Strategic players

This presentation is "Strategic Opportunities in Social Recreational Dance Markets".  It is written for strategic players, strategy opportunists and wannabe strategic players.

Most businesses are not strategic players, except in so far as do-what-'they'-do followership and imitation can be considered a strategy.  At this point in the social recreational dance world, followership is not generally a good strategy.

1st Mover Innovators  There are many examples of 1st-mover-innovators.  In the industry of book selling, think amazon.com and Jeff Bezos 

1st Follower Power Players  There are many examples of 1st-follower-power-players.  In the industry of online book selling, think Barnes & Noble.

Mindset moves money

Mindset moves money.  Money can move mindset; more on that later.

Mindset is what differentiates strategic players from non-strategic players. 

Money is not required in order to be a strategic player; mindset is required.  A mindset with a sellable strategy can move the money required to mobilize the strategy.

At this time in social-recreational dancing the primary opportunities are for 1st-mover-innovators.

A good growth market, as in a rising-tide industry, provides substantial opportunity for followership strategies, but that is not the case in social recreational dance today.  (I will be addressing the current ballroom situation as we proceed.)

This presentation will be of interest to those who prefer creativeness and innovation over following and doing what others are doing.  When the social recreational dance industry begins to grow after its next revitalization, there will be renewed opportunity for all.

Constructed strategy

A strategy can be constructed by thinking; by intellectual efforting.  A constructed strategy is/has a plan; it has specific intentions.  A constructed strategy has, to a great extent, been "thought through".

Emergent strategy

Many enterprises do not have a constructed strategy; they don't particularly have plans to do anything other than what they are doing.  We can think of this situation in different ways; and in this presentation I incorporate both of the following concepts; even though they can be inconsistent with each other, they do improve clarity:

Non-strategic players:  In a previous section I referred to "strategic players" and "non-strategic players".  A key distinction here is between such things as being intentional and conscious, or not, about "strategy". Some enterprises seek to be "strategic"; but many do not pay any attention to the issue.

Emergent strategy:  But we can't really say that a business is without strategy; they do operate in some intentional ways.  If we observe the operations of a business we can discern and describe some elements of a possible strategy; and from the outside we don't really know if it is a constructed strategy or not.  Even if a business operation is chaotic and internally inconsistent and disorganized, that could be a strategy.

What happens, even in enterprises with extensive constructed strategy, is that over time the "real" strategy "emerges".  A description of  the way an enterprise actually/really operates is effectviely a narrative of the "emergent strategy" of that enterprise; it is what has emerged from whatever constructed, or hodge podge, strategy they had or did not have.

Most of the time in this presentation, the use of the term "strategy" indicates "thought-about strategy"; which means a substantially constructed strategy.  In cases in which I mean "emergent strategy" I specifically indicate that.

Analysis

Good strategy requires good thinking; good analysis.  The content of this presentation is a lot of analysis.

"Analysis" is just what we know it is:  the mental work of taking things apart in an intellectual context.  Years ago when I took apart the transmission of my classic 1950 Mercury coupe, my analysis provided me with understanding of how it all fit together, and especially how the roller bearings needed to be placed so that the transmission would work again.

Synthesis

Good strategy requires good synthesis; this also has to be the product of good thinking.

"Synthesis" is the intellectual work of putting back together, in a new way, that which has been taken apart in the analysis.  Synthesis is the conclusion; the bottom line; the "short version". 

Given my vision (and Vison, Mission, Purpose), which includes my assertion that "social recreational dancing easily has the potential to be a much more significant activity than it now is", my mission is to make a difference, significantly, in the probabilities of that occurring. 

My picture of how to best do that, and how to best serve the social recreational dance industry, and fundamentally to best serve the social recreational dance community of dancers and future dancers which the industry serves, is to share my many syntheses, my good-to-great ideas, and my best and hottest strategies with those who will value them, nurture them, and seek to bring them into existence; such that the social recreational dance world will be transformed and infused with the kind of new vitality which has been produced in many other once-unimportant industries.

Manufacturing, Goods

The manufacturing sector is generally thought of as having mostly developed industries in America; most production of goods is accomplished with mostly up to date methods in this country.

Agriculture, Food

The agriculture sector in America is also considered as having mostly developed industries; almost everything from food growing, to food processing, to food transport is generally accomplished with up to date methods.

Services Sector

Services is now the dominant sector in the American economy. The growth of the services sector, to surpass the manufacturing sector, which had previously surpassed the agriculture sector,  was not accomplished by means of the undeveloped industries in it; the growth of the service sector was accomplished by the growth of the developing industries within it.

Some of the huge service industries are a mixture of developed and undeveloped components. Tourism and travel industries, for example, have both very advanced, developed businesses, and very limited, underdeveloped businesses.

Note again that the distinction between developed and undeveloped is not the level of success or scale but rather the approaches and methods employed. The tiniest and least successful businesses in some instances can be far more developed than far larger and more successful, for the moment, businesses which are using arcane, outmoded approaches and methods.

A developed industry is one with a significant component of developed businesses. An undeveloped industry is one which is almost entirely composed of undeveloped businesses.

Other services industries which are developed to a high degree include hospitality, health care, insurance, finance, entertainment, legal, communications, and several others.

Services Category Groups

The services sector has several sub-category groups; many of the category groups include fairly well developed industries and undeveloped industries. Most of the fairly well developed industries have a broad spectrum of businesses ranging from the most developed to the least developed:

Hospitality

• Lodging - ranging from highly developed to undeveloped
• Restaurants - ranging from highly developed to undeveloped
• ...

Personal Services

• Health Clubs - a highly developed industry
• Beauty Shops - a highly undeveloped industry
• ...

Many others ...

Leisure & Recreation Industries

A large part of social recreational dance is within the leisure and recreation services category:

• Theme & amusement parks - very highly developed
• Golf courses - well developed industry
• Pool halls - a reasonably well developed component; and converged by other businesses
• Bowling alleys - the slow resurgence is due to the re-developing state of the industry
• Racetracks - fell behind, occassional re-developing attempts
• Ice & Roller skating rinks - fell behind the times, undeveloped state now
• Video rentals - mostly well developed

Social recreational dancing in modern nightclubs - very well developed

Social recreational dancing not in modern nightclubs - undeveloped

Looking to the present or past to see the future

"those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future."  John F. Kennedy

["Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future." ]

Grocery Stores to Supermarkets

The grocery industry is definitely a developed industry; these folks have not been letting the grass grow under their feet for a long time now. And yet the supermarket is, in the long, long history of food retailing, quite new. Figure that food retailing is over 3,000 years old, and the supermarket is more than a score short of a century - thus the supermarket has only been present for the last ~2% of the food retailing industry timeline.

And self-service, and packaging, is only a very few years older. The self-service innovation is generally credited to Piggly Wiggly in Memphis in 1916; less than 100 years ago.

Credit for being the first supermarket is generally given to King Kullen in Queen's New York in 1930 - less than 80 years ago.

Since those first key developments the industry has not been allowed, since there are always new competitive challenges to deal with, to slide into complacency. The industry has had to remain in a developed state, rather than keep the old ways of last year and the year before that.

From the 1930's through the 1980's the intra-industry competition kept the industry on it toes, and becoming ever more efficient.

Then, as non-grocery discounters (Wal-Mart, Target, ...) and warehouse stores (Costco, Sam's Club, ...), added groceries and made themselves into supermarket-competitors, the struggle to survive and reinvent themselves became even more intense for supermarkets.

This is an industry that must keep itself on the developing edge or they'll be out-competed, out-moded, and out-dated.

Oops

"By the 1950s, the transition to supermarkets was largely complete, and the migration to suburban locations was beginning. Some chains were more aggressive with this move than others. A&P, for example, was very hesitant to expend the necessary capital and move outward, retaining urban locations for perhaps longer than was prudent. While the company tried to catch up in the 1960s, its momentum had vanished, and the once dominant chain eventually became something of an “also-ran.”"

"A&P, as was its custom at the time, arrived somewhat late and unprepared for this party. It attempt at discounting, WEO (Warehouse Economy Outlet) was something of a disaster, plagued by distribution issues and by the fact that its numerous smaller and older stores were not capable of producing the volume required to make discounting work (but were converted anyway). This was one of several factors that preceded A&P’s major meltdown of the mid-1970s."

A Quick History of the Supermarket : Groceteria.com | Supermarket History + other sources 

Strategic Opportunities for EXISTING Social Recreational Dance Businesses

Existing social recreational dance businesses are theoretically best positioned to take advantage of major opportunities in social recreational dance markets. But there are several factors that make it more difficult for them than for new entrants to the market. In this presentation I discuss those difficulties.

On an overall industry basis there are many different facets of existing social recreational dance businesses that get in the way of their being able to capitalize on the opportunities in their areas.

But on an individual-business basis, it is often just one major problem that keeps that particular business from being able to reach, or most often even see, the opportunity-fruits hanging above them.

For one existing social recreational dance business it's one thing, for another it's another thing, and for another it's yet another thing.

There are of course a limited number of 'things'. And on the overall industry basis there are lots of social recreational dance businesses with the same 'thing'; and of course the occurrence of multiple-'things' in individual businesses is not uncommon.

The good news is that the individual businesses that can overcome, transcend, transform, fix, change or neutralize their 'thing(s)' have a great shot at seeing and then capitalizing on the major opportunities around them.

Strategic Opportunities for NEW Social Recreational Dance Businesses

All of the opportunities, both major and minor, in social recreational dance markets are fully open to new entrants.

Barriers to Entry

There are no barriers to entry for almost the entire social recreational dance industry. Anyone can easily get into most of the businesses.

Exceptions

Nightclubs for Early Adults:  The '20-somethings Nightclub business' is an exception. That part of the industry requires capital, expertise, experience and more to enter.

DanceSport Competition Major Events: The DanceSport part of the industry is more developed than the social recreational side. Even so, almost all of the DanceSport industry has no effective barriers to entry, the exception being that becoming a new organizer of major DanceSport events requires some assets and attributes; nevertheless it's easily doable.

Ripeness, Readiness

This is a judgment call at this stage. We are not at take-off and are still in stagnation and decline in various parts of the industry.

My opinion is that the industry is ripe and ready for development.

The opportunities are for leaders not for followers/imitators.  Since the process has not yet begun, there is no bandwagon; and followership is irrelevant at this time.

Booms & Fads

Dance booms and busts come and go; as do dance fads. At this time we are not in the middle of any dance boom or fad.

Ballroom

In the second and third season of Dancing with the Stars, and So You Think You Can Dance, we started to see hype about a "Ballroom Boom".  Most of it was PR related to existing or new ballroom teaching businesses. Some of it said they were experiencing growth of "20%" per year.

First, there was no Ballroom boom and isn't one now. Second, "20%" per year is not even close to a "boom". Third, while there is a continuing boom in watching these shows, that has not translated to participation as we all had hoped and some had hyped.

Respect - by Men - for Ballroom Dancing

But what the shows, especially Dancing with the Stars, did accomplish is creating respect among men for Ballroom dancing. No longer can men so easily get away with disrespectful gratuitous comments about "dancing" - and the incidence of that has diminished incredibly from what it was previous to those shows.

And not only has the disrespect been much reduced - even men who still express it seem to feel off-base, silly and awkward - but in general men now 'get it' and have come to have actual respect for dancing.

Many men who formerly expressed disrespect now have changed to some statement about themselves (such as they don't know how to dance).

This shift in attitude in the culture is a major accomplishment and development in the industry. It changes the entire foundation. And it has major implications.

Salsa Boom

The Salsa boom is much reduced from its peak years. But the Salsa part of the social recreational dance industry has stopped the slide and has made important changes and is coming to some stability from which it can achieve some long term re-growth.

A few of the players who went into hibernation during the bust period are now creating new involvements for themselves and positioning for the longer term.

Swing (Lindy) Boom

The "Swing Boom" was really a Lindy Hop Boom (Lindy being one of the many distinct variations of Swing); which unfortunately busted.

Fortunately the Lindy scene is being kept alive and is vibrantly swinging in some particular venues.

Country Western Boom

The Country Western boom is long busted and over.

Thanks to a few places (such as Cowboy Country in Long Beach, In Cahoots in Fullerton, and similar venues around the country) it is still being kept alive kicking and Two-Stepping.

Line Dancing

Line Dancing was part of the Country Western boom (along with CW 2-Step and other lesser partner dances) - but also has had its own booms.

Line Dancing went underground after the bust.

Now it is beginning to emerge in new ways; very early in the process now, but it's past the bottom and will grow again.

Argentine Tango ("AT")

Argentine Tango ("AT") enjoys little micro-spurts occassionally. Over time and mini-cycles AT is possibly on its way to becoming mainstreamed and shifted away from its long sort-of-novelty status (recall actor Robert Duvall as a devotee).

Hip Hop

Hip Hop dancing has developed over a long period of time without having a Boom period.

For some, the term that takes in the broad form of many dances related to pop and video music is "Hip Hop". "Urban Dance" is a better term since it includes and is not limited to Hip Hop.

Other Social Recreational Dances & Dancing

Beyond the few I've mentioned here there are a hundred other social recreational dances that are in various states of growth, stability, or decline.

This presentation focuses on dance booms and fads and isn't an overall status inventory of the many wonderful social recreational dances that are available (some of them offer meaningful business opportunity).

West Coast Swing ("WCS") is a dance mentioned by some (usually West Coast Swingers of course) as having a boom. But WCS is one of the dances that has some stability, has a loyal participatory base, and has patterns of forward a little, back a little.

There are other dances that also have some long term stability or slight growth that I don't discuss here in this presentation about dance booms and fads.

There are other wonderful dances that are in long term decline which are steadily dying out (and there are some very interesting opportunities in this group also).

Macarena

Macarena was the last big fad dance in the general culture; and that was quite a few years ago.

The Way of the World > New People Bring the New Ideas & Reap the New Rewards

It's unfortunately the way of the world: in industry after industry, in endeavor after endeavor, it's the new people who bring the new ideas and create the new vitality and new growth phases of the industry. It's unfortunate because those who've put in such long years and such hard work should reap the rewards.

But part of the long years and hard work is the inability to see from the outside what they are so deeply inside.

And, it's not that they haven't considered many new ideas themselves - or that just any new idea from the outside works. No. The existing business owners have tried some new ideas, and thought about many more. And most of the new ideas brought by new entrants do not work any better than the new ideas of the existing businesses.

It's just that when a new idea does work well, it's most often, but not always, that it was brought by a new entrant to a market or industry.

Advantage <> Disadvantage

On the one hand, the existing businesses in an industry have some excellent advantages over potential newcomers.

On the other hand, the existing businesses in an industry have some serious disadvantages against potential newcomers.

On an overall industry basis, it's most often the newcomers who win; and the previously existing businesses have to scramble to adjust to see if they can survive instead of become too seriously marginalized.

On the individual-business basis, it all comes down to the details. Individual social recreational dance businesses have the possibility of seeing and capitalizing on the major opportunities, but whether they can actually do so depends on a lot of factors which I discuss in this presentation.

Keep in mind that my topic here is not the ability to accomplish mere survival through this period. It is instead the ability to take advantage of at least one of the several major opportunities that I say/see exist in the social recreational dance industry.

Many existing social recreational dance businesses will survive going forward; but only a few will thrive.

(Un)Changing Minds > The Bedrock of Decline & Stagnation

For existing social recreational dance business owners to have a chance at the major opportunities they would have to first change their minds about a lot of things. Since they/we are all human beings, this is not at all an easy thing to accomplish.

And the compounding issue that raises the level of difficulty way up there is that we actually think/assume that we have changed our minds when we really haven't. It's the way that we, as mammals are wired.

Changing your mind about some very important elements of social recreational dance businesses and the industry is both

• A Great Opportunity - accomplishing it has major potential payoffs
• A Great Challenge - changing one's own mind is a difficult thing to accomplish

Measures

Scale 1

..

• Exemplary > performs at a level that results in significant accomplishments that may not have been otherwise achieved
• Solid Sustained > demonstrates good solid performance in managing work expectations; exhibits sustained support of organizational goals
• Achieves Performance Standards > meets performance standards
• Does Not Achieve Performance Standards > performance needs improvement and/or is inconsistent

Work & Skills Needed

A social recreational dance business has work that needs doing and skills needed for the doing of that work. The overall work and skills needed is similar to, but not the same as, some other businesses.

Upside - Downside \/ Benefit - Cost

The 'worse' or 'better' that some work is done impacts the business outcomes in different ways. For example:

• Conversation has both upside and downside impacts:  the better it is done, the better the business results; there are good benefits to doing conversation at a level above 'good enough'; and there are costs for doing conversations at a level less than 'good enough'
• Listening has mostly a downside impact: the worse it's done, the more it costs in terms of business results; but better than 'good enough' listening doesn't have much upside benefit; all that is needed is 'good enough'; but there are business impacts for doing it less well than that

Not all work is clear in terms of upside benefits for doing it very well, or in terms of downside costs for doing it poorly. In most cases it depends on the details of the situation.

Necessary & Sufficient

Some of the work is effectively necessary; some is fuzzy as to its necessity; and some is optional and not necessary.

There is no definable combination of work that can be considered sufficient. What might turn out for one social recreational dance business to 'have been' sufficient (for their success), will not be sufficient for any other social recreational dance business. Moreover, for the social recreational dance business for which it turns out to have been sufficient, it was not predictably so. You will not know what is/was sufficient for success until that success occurs.

Overlap, Exhaustivity, & Other Frameworks

In the listings of work & skills there is overlap.

The listing of work & skills is by no means exhaustive; there is lots more work and skills in play than is listed here.

Many other frameworks of work and skills are possible; in those frameworks some of the work/skills listed here would not appear. For example, some might prefer to simply put 'conversation', 'listening', and others in a 'Selling' frame.

Balance \/ Oppositional Work & Skills

Some work is conflicting or oppositional - doing one thing better/more causes other things to be lesser. Like a seesaw - loading more weight on one end cause the other to be further off-center; or like a board spanning a space - loading more weight in the center can cause the board to crack or break and no longer span the space.

While achieving skills is not easy, achieving a workable or good balance is even more difficult.

Compensation & Substitution

All work is not needed to be done well. Some work can be substituted for. And one can compensate for some weaknesses by relying on strengths. But it all depends on the specific situation.

One studio owner for example might be a weak marketer and a good teacher. More teaching can in some cases substitute and compensate for weak marketing but that only works to a certain degree. Or another studio owner can be a strong marketer and a weak teacher. In some businesses marketing can substitute and compensate for weak services, but again that only works to a certain degree.

On the other hand, there are some substitutions/compensations that work wonderfully well.

Listening & Listening Skills

A social recreational dance business is dependent on listening skills - dancers and potential dancers need to be listened to by someone at some times.

In a social recreational dance business, listening skills impact the downside but not much on the upside. A business is simply expected to have good enough listening skills - if it doesn't, it gets hurt on the downside. The worse the listening, the worse the business results.

If it has excellent listening skills, there usually isn't an upside benefit. All that's needed is good enough, not great.

For in-person social recreational dance businesses there is perhaps nothing that can substitute or compensate for good enough listening.

A complexifying difficulty with listening is that you often don't know if you have listened, or are listening, well enough or not.

Conversation & Conversation Skills

A social recreational dance business* is dependent on conversation skills - dancers and potential dancers need to talk with someone at some times.

In a social recreational dance business, conversation skills are usually directly impactful on results and outcomes of the business. The worse the conversations the worse the business results; the better the conversations the better the business results.

For in-person social recreational dance businesses there isn't much that can substitute or compensate for good enough conversations.

[*This discussion does not, at this point, include online social recreational dance businesses - for which conversation is not a necessity.]

People Relations & People Relations Skills

People relations range from wonderful to horrible

• Where in your business are people relations quite good?
• Where are they not good?

Ability to communicate effectively with the public; the degree to which one is able to project a courteous and helpful image

1. Exceptionally tactful and courteous; has excellent communication skills; goes out of the way to be helpful
2. Consistently tactful and courteous; able to communicate effectively; strives to be helpful
3. Generally tactful and courteous; usually able to communicate satisfactorily; willing to be helpful
4. Needs to improve tact and diplomacy skills; aggressive approach occasionally results in communication problems; reluctantly helpful
5. Is tactless and discourteous; aggressive approach frequently results in communication problems; not helpful

What doing well & what not doing well

Among the things that existing social recreational dance business owners would have to change their minds about, in order to have a chance at the major opportunities, would be what they do do well and what they do not do well - and how those things relate to and impact how well they are doing currently in terms of results and outcomes in their business.

the more things they do do well
the better their outcomes will show how well they are doing 
the more things they do not do well
the better their outcomes will show how not-well they are doing

To do well
Do (things) well
To do well

Changing one's mind in the area of seeing what one is doing well and, especially, seeing and acknowledging what one is not doing well is perhaps both a necessary step in being able to see and take advantage of major opportunities, and also a possible magical gateway to them.

In seeing what one is not doing well and is doing well, one begins to see many other things beyond that. The view of the landscape changes. The realm of what's possible shifts.

To begin to examine what one is doing well and not so well, consider a list of work & skills needed in your social recreational dance business.

Writing & Writing Skills

Social recreational dance businesses in today's world can benefit from writing skills.

While conversation and listening is necessary work, writing is optional. A social recreational dance business that does not have any writing will do less well than those that do; but even so, it isn't a necessity.

There is good upside to good writing.

There isn't a cost for not having writing. Not having writing is an opportunity cost, not a downside cost.

The downside cost in relation to writing is if it is provided but done badly. It is much better to not write at all than to write badly for any public communications in a social recreational dance business.

Writing can be more easily contracted than some other tasks that need doing in a social recreational dance business. Writing can be done in the background; it is not a real-time task such as conversation.

Work Attributes

Work attributes include such things as knowledge, quality, initiative, judgment, etc.

Knowledge

Knowledge in various things can range from superior to non-existent.

• Where in your business is knowledge superior?
• Where is it very low?

Taking Responsibility

Taking responsibility can range from great to very little

• Where in your business is taking responsibility great?
• Where is it missing?

Ability to demonstrate willingness to assume and implement the responsibilities of the job

1. Actively seeks more responsibility
2. Accepts responsibility beyond normal requirements
3. Accepts normal responsibility
4. Resists acceptance of responsibility
5. Refuses to accept responsibility