Strategic Opportunities in Social Recreational Dance Markets

Manufacturing, Goods

The manufacturing sector is generally thought of as having mostly developed industries in America; most production of goods is accomplished with mostly up to date methods in this country.

Agriculture, Food

The agriculture sector in America is also considered as having mostly developed industries; almost everything from food growing, to food processing, to food transport is generally accomplished with up to date methods.

Services Sector

Services is now the dominant sector in the American economy. The growth of the services sector, to surpass the manufacturing sector, which had previously surpassed the agriculture sector,  was not accomplished by means of the undeveloped industries in it; the growth of the service sector was accomplished by the growth of the developing industries within it.

Some of the huge service industries are a mixture of developed and undeveloped components. Tourism and travel industries, for example, have both very advanced, developed businesses, and very limited, underdeveloped businesses.

Note again that the distinction between developed and undeveloped is not the level of success or scale but rather the approaches and methods employed. The tiniest and least successful businesses in some instances can be far more developed than far larger and more successful, for the moment, businesses which are using arcane, outmoded approaches and methods.

A developed industry is one with a significant component of developed businesses. An undeveloped industry is one which is almost entirely composed of undeveloped businesses.

Other services industries which are developed to a high degree include hospitality, health care, insurance, finance, entertainment, legal, communications, and several others.

Services Category Groups

The services sector has several sub-category groups; many of the category groups include fairly well developed industries and undeveloped industries. Most of the fairly well developed industries have a broad spectrum of businesses ranging from the most developed to the least developed:

Hospitality

• Lodging - ranging from highly developed to undeveloped
• Restaurants - ranging from highly developed to undeveloped
• ...

Personal Services

• Health Clubs - a highly developed industry
• Beauty Shops - a highly undeveloped industry
• ...

Many others ...

Leisure & Recreation Industries

A large part of social recreational dance is within the leisure and recreation services category:

• Theme & amusement parks - very highly developed
• Golf courses - well developed industry
• Pool halls - a reasonably well developed component; and converged by other businesses
• Bowling alleys - the slow resurgence is due to the re-developing state of the industry
• Racetracks - fell behind, occassional re-developing attempts
• Ice & Roller skating rinks - fell behind the times, undeveloped state now
• Video rentals - mostly well developed

Social recreational dancing in modern nightclubs - very well developed

Social recreational dancing not in modern nightclubs - undeveloped

Looking to the present or past to see the future

"those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future."  John F. Kennedy

["Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future." ]

Grocery Stores to Supermarkets

The grocery industry is definitely a developed industry; these folks have not been letting the grass grow under their feet for a long time now. And yet the supermarket is, in the long, long history of food retailing, quite new. Figure that food retailing is over 3,000 years old, and the supermarket is more than a score short of a century - thus the supermarket has only been present for the last ~2% of the food retailing industry timeline.

And self-service, and packaging, is only a very few years older. The self-service innovation is generally credited to Piggly Wiggly in Memphis in 1916; less than 100 years ago.

Credit for being the first supermarket is generally given to King Kullen in Queen's New York in 1930 - less than 80 years ago.

Since those first key developments the industry has not been allowed, since there are always new competitive challenges to deal with, to slide into complacency. The industry has had to remain in a developed state, rather than keep the old ways of last year and the year before that.

From the 1930's through the 1980's the intra-industry competition kept the industry on it toes, and becoming ever more efficient.

Then, as non-grocery discounters (Wal-Mart, Target, ...) and warehouse stores (Costco, Sam's Club, ...), added groceries and made themselves into supermarket-competitors, the struggle to survive and reinvent themselves became even more intense for supermarkets.

This is an industry that must keep itself on the developing edge or they'll be out-competed, out-moded, and out-dated.

Oops

"By the 1950s, the transition to supermarkets was largely complete, and the migration to suburban locations was beginning. Some chains were more aggressive with this move than others. A&P, for example, was very hesitant to expend the necessary capital and move outward, retaining urban locations for perhaps longer than was prudent. While the company tried to catch up in the 1960s, its momentum had vanished, and the once dominant chain eventually became something of an “also-ran.”"

"A&P, as was its custom at the time, arrived somewhat late and unprepared for this party. It attempt at discounting, WEO (Warehouse Economy Outlet) was something of a disaster, plagued by distribution issues and by the fact that its numerous smaller and older stores were not capable of producing the volume required to make discounting work (but were converted anyway). This was one of several factors that preceded A&P’s major meltdown of the mid-1970s."

A Quick History of the Supermarket : Groceteria.com | Supermarket History + other sources 

Strategic Opportunities for EXISTING Social Recreational Dance Businesses

Existing social recreational dance businesses are theoretically best positioned to take advantage of major opportunities in social recreational dance markets. But there are several factors that make it more difficult for them than for new entrants to the market. In this presentation I discuss those difficulties.

On an overall industry basis there are many different facets of existing social recreational dance businesses that get in the way of their being able to capitalize on the opportunities in their areas.

But on an individual-business basis, it is often just one major problem that keeps that particular business from being able to reach, or most often even see, the opportunity-fruits hanging above them.

For one existing social recreational dance business it's one thing, for another it's another thing, and for another it's yet another thing.

There are of course a limited number of 'things'. And on the overall industry basis there are lots of social recreational dance businesses with the same 'thing'; and of course the occurrence of multiple-'things' in individual businesses is not uncommon.

The good news is that the individual businesses that can overcome, transcend, transform, fix, change or neutralize their 'thing(s)' have a great shot at seeing and then capitalizing on the major opportunities around them.

Strategic Opportunities for NEW Social Recreational Dance Businesses

All of the opportunities, both major and minor, in social recreational dance markets are fully open to new entrants.

Barriers to Entry

There are no barriers to entry for almost the entire social recreational dance industry. Anyone can easily get into most of the businesses.

Exceptions

Nightclubs for Early Adults:  The '20-somethings Nightclub business' is an exception. That part of the industry requires capital, expertise, experience and more to enter.

DanceSport Competition Major Events: The DanceSport part of the industry is more developed than the social recreational side. Even so, almost all of the DanceSport industry has no effective barriers to entry, the exception being that becoming a new organizer of major DanceSport events requires some assets and attributes; nevertheless it's easily doable.

Ripeness, Readiness

This is a judgment call at this stage. We are not at take-off and are still in stagnation and decline in various parts of the industry.

My opinion is that the industry is ripe and ready for development.

The opportunities are for leaders not for followers/imitators.  Since the process has not yet begun, there is no bandwagon; and followership is irrelevant at this time.

Booms & Fads

Dance booms and busts come and go; as do dance fads. At this time we are not in the middle of any dance boom or fad.

Ballroom

In the second and third season of Dancing with the Stars, and So You Think You Can Dance, we started to see hype about a "Ballroom Boom".  Most of it was PR related to existing or new ballroom teaching businesses. Some of it said they were experiencing growth of "20%" per year.

First, there was no Ballroom boom and isn't one now. Second, "20%" per year is not even close to a "boom". Third, while there is a continuing boom in watching these shows, that has not translated to participation as we all had hoped and some had hyped.

Respect - by Men - for Ballroom Dancing

But what the shows, especially Dancing with the Stars, did accomplish is creating respect among men for Ballroom dancing. No longer can men so easily get away with disrespectful gratuitous comments about "dancing" - and the incidence of that has diminished incredibly from what it was previous to those shows.

And not only has the disrespect been much reduced - even men who still express it seem to feel off-base, silly and awkward - but in general men now 'get it' and have come to have actual respect for dancing.

Many men who formerly expressed disrespect now have changed to some statement about themselves (such as they don't know how to dance).

This shift in attitude in the culture is a major accomplishment and development in the industry. It changes the entire foundation. And it has major implications.

Salsa Boom

The Salsa boom is much reduced from its peak years. But the Salsa part of the social recreational dance industry has stopped the slide and has made important changes and is coming to some stability from which it can achieve some long term re-growth.

A few of the players who went into hibernation during the bust period are now creating new involvements for themselves and positioning for the longer term.

Swing (Lindy) Boom

The "Swing Boom" was really a Lindy Hop Boom (Lindy being one of the many distinct variations of Swing); which unfortunately busted.

Fortunately the Lindy scene is being kept alive and is vibrantly swinging in some particular venues.

Country Western Boom

The Country Western boom is long busted and over.

Thanks to a few places (such as Cowboy Country in Long Beach, In Cahoots in Fullerton, and similar venues around the country) it is still being kept alive kicking and Two-Stepping.

Line Dancing

Line Dancing was part of the Country Western boom (along with CW 2-Step and other lesser partner dances) - but also has had its own booms.

Line Dancing went underground after the bust.

Now it is beginning to emerge in new ways; very early in the process now, but it's past the bottom and will grow again.

Argentine Tango ("AT")

Argentine Tango ("AT") enjoys little micro-spurts occassionally. Over time and mini-cycles AT is possibly on its way to becoming mainstreamed and shifted away from its long sort-of-novelty status (recall actor Robert Duvall as a devotee).

Hip Hop

Hip Hop dancing has developed over a long period of time without having a Boom period.

For some, the term that takes in the broad form of many dances related to pop and video music is "Hip Hop". "Urban Dance" is a better term since it includes and is not limited to Hip Hop.

Other Social Recreational Dances & Dancing

Beyond the few I've mentioned here there are a hundred other social recreational dances that are in various states of growth, stability, or decline.

This presentation focuses on dance booms and fads and isn't an overall status inventory of the many wonderful social recreational dances that are available (some of them offer meaningful business opportunity).

West Coast Swing ("WCS") is a dance mentioned by some (usually West Coast Swingers of course) as having a boom. But WCS is one of the dances that has some stability, has a loyal participatory base, and has patterns of forward a little, back a little.

There are other dances that also have some long term stability or slight growth that I don't discuss here in this presentation about dance booms and fads.

There are other wonderful dances that are in long term decline which are steadily dying out (and there are some very interesting opportunities in this group also).

Macarena

Macarena was the last big fad dance in the general culture; and that was quite a few years ago.

The Way of the World > New People Bring the New Ideas & Reap the New Rewards

It's unfortunately the way of the world: in industry after industry, in endeavor after endeavor, it's the new people who bring the new ideas and create the new vitality and new growth phases of the industry. It's unfortunate because those who've put in such long years and such hard work should reap the rewards.

But part of the long years and hard work is the inability to see from the outside what they are so deeply inside.

And, it's not that they haven't considered many new ideas themselves - or that just any new idea from the outside works. No. The existing business owners have tried some new ideas, and thought about many more. And most of the new ideas brought by new entrants do not work any better than the new ideas of the existing businesses.

It's just that when a new idea does work well, it's most often, but not always, that it was brought by a new entrant to a market or industry.

Advantage <> Disadvantage

On the one hand, the existing businesses in an industry have some excellent advantages over potential newcomers.

On the other hand, the existing businesses in an industry have some serious disadvantages against potential newcomers.

On an overall industry basis, it's most often the newcomers who win; and the previously existing businesses have to scramble to adjust to see if they can survive instead of become too seriously marginalized.

On the individual-business basis, it all comes down to the details. Individual social recreational dance businesses have the possibility of seeing and capitalizing on the major opportunities, but whether they can actually do so depends on a lot of factors which I discuss in this presentation.

Keep in mind that my topic here is not the ability to accomplish mere survival through this period. It is instead the ability to take advantage of at least one of the several major opportunities that I say/see exist in the social recreational dance industry.

Many existing social recreational dance businesses will survive going forward; but only a few will thrive.

(Un)Changing Minds > The Bedrock of Decline & Stagnation

For existing social recreational dance business owners to have a chance at the major opportunities they would have to first change their minds about a lot of things. Since they/we are all human beings, this is not at all an easy thing to accomplish.

And the compounding issue that raises the level of difficulty way up there is that we actually think/assume that we have changed our minds when we really haven't. It's the way that we, as mammals are wired.

Changing your mind about some very important elements of social recreational dance businesses and the industry is both

• A Great Opportunity - accomplishing it has major potential payoffs
• A Great Challenge - changing one's own mind is a difficult thing to accomplish

Measures

Scale 1

..

• Exemplary > performs at a level that results in significant accomplishments that may not have been otherwise achieved
• Solid Sustained > demonstrates good solid performance in managing work expectations; exhibits sustained support of organizational goals
• Achieves Performance Standards > meets performance standards
• Does Not Achieve Performance Standards > performance needs improvement and/or is inconsistent

Work & Skills Needed

A social recreational dance business has work that needs doing and skills needed for the doing of that work. The overall work and skills needed is similar to, but not the same as, some other businesses.

Upside - Downside \/ Benefit - Cost

The 'worse' or 'better' that some work is done impacts the business outcomes in different ways. For example:

• Conversation has both upside and downside impacts:  the better it is done, the better the business results; there are good benefits to doing conversation at a level above 'good enough'; and there are costs for doing conversations at a level less than 'good enough'
• Listening has mostly a downside impact: the worse it's done, the more it costs in terms of business results; but better than 'good enough' listening doesn't have much upside benefit; all that is needed is 'good enough'; but there are business impacts for doing it less well than that

Not all work is clear in terms of upside benefits for doing it very well, or in terms of downside costs for doing it poorly. In most cases it depends on the details of the situation.

Necessary & Sufficient

Some of the work is effectively necessary; some is fuzzy as to its necessity; and some is optional and not necessary.

There is no definable combination of work that can be considered sufficient. What might turn out for one social recreational dance business to 'have been' sufficient (for their success), will not be sufficient for any other social recreational dance business. Moreover, for the social recreational dance business for which it turns out to have been sufficient, it was not predictably so. You will not know what is/was sufficient for success until that success occurs.

Overlap, Exhaustivity, & Other Frameworks

In the listings of work & skills there is overlap.

The listing of work & skills is by no means exhaustive; there is lots more work and skills in play than is listed here.

Many other frameworks of work and skills are possible; in those frameworks some of the work/skills listed here would not appear. For example, some might prefer to simply put 'conversation', 'listening', and others in a 'Selling' frame.

Balance \/ Oppositional Work & Skills

Some work is conflicting or oppositional - doing one thing better/more causes other things to be lesser. Like a seesaw - loading more weight on one end cause the other to be further off-center; or like a board spanning a space - loading more weight in the center can cause the board to crack or break and no longer span the space.

While achieving skills is not easy, achieving a workable or good balance is even more difficult.

Compensation & Substitution

All work is not needed to be done well. Some work can be substituted for. And one can compensate for some weaknesses by relying on strengths. But it all depends on the specific situation.

One studio owner for example might be a weak marketer and a good teacher. More teaching can in some cases substitute and compensate for weak marketing but that only works to a certain degree. Or another studio owner can be a strong marketer and a weak teacher. In some businesses marketing can substitute and compensate for weak services, but again that only works to a certain degree.

On the other hand, there are some substitutions/compensations that work wonderfully well.

Listening & Listening Skills

A social recreational dance business is dependent on listening skills - dancers and potential dancers need to be listened to by someone at some times.

In a social recreational dance business, listening skills impact the downside but not much on the upside. A business is simply expected to have good enough listening skills - if it doesn't, it gets hurt on the downside. The worse the listening, the worse the business results.

If it has excellent listening skills, there usually isn't an upside benefit. All that's needed is good enough, not great.

For in-person social recreational dance businesses there is perhaps nothing that can substitute or compensate for good enough listening.

A complexifying difficulty with listening is that you often don't know if you have listened, or are listening, well enough or not.

Conversation & Conversation Skills

A social recreational dance business* is dependent on conversation skills - dancers and potential dancers need to talk with someone at some times.

In a social recreational dance business, conversation skills are usually directly impactful on results and outcomes of the business. The worse the conversations the worse the business results; the better the conversations the better the business results.

For in-person social recreational dance businesses there isn't much that can substitute or compensate for good enough conversations.

[*This discussion does not, at this point, include online social recreational dance businesses - for which conversation is not a necessity.]

People Relations & People Relations Skills

People relations range from wonderful to horrible

• Where in your business are people relations quite good?
• Where are they not good?

Ability to communicate effectively with the public; the degree to which one is able to project a courteous and helpful image

1. Exceptionally tactful and courteous; has excellent communication skills; goes out of the way to be helpful
2. Consistently tactful and courteous; able to communicate effectively; strives to be helpful
3. Generally tactful and courteous; usually able to communicate satisfactorily; willing to be helpful
4. Needs to improve tact and diplomacy skills; aggressive approach occasionally results in communication problems; reluctantly helpful
5. Is tactless and discourteous; aggressive approach frequently results in communication problems; not helpful

What doing well & what not doing well

Among the things that existing social recreational dance business owners would have to change their minds about, in order to have a chance at the major opportunities, would be what they do do well and what they do not do well - and how those things relate to and impact how well they are doing currently in terms of results and outcomes in their business.

the more things they do do well
the better their outcomes will show how well they are doing 
the more things they do not do well
the better their outcomes will show how not-well they are doing

To do well
Do (things) well
To do well

Changing one's mind in the area of seeing what one is doing well and, especially, seeing and acknowledging what one is not doing well is perhaps both a necessary step in being able to see and take advantage of major opportunities, and also a possible magical gateway to them.

In seeing what one is not doing well and is doing well, one begins to see many other things beyond that. The view of the landscape changes. The realm of what's possible shifts.

To begin to examine what one is doing well and not so well, consider a list of work & skills needed in your social recreational dance business.

Writing & Writing Skills

Social recreational dance businesses in today's world can benefit from writing skills.

While conversation and listening is necessary work, writing is optional. A social recreational dance business that does not have any writing will do less well than those that do; but even so, it isn't a necessity.

There is good upside to good writing.

There isn't a cost for not having writing. Not having writing is an opportunity cost, not a downside cost.

The downside cost in relation to writing is if it is provided but done badly. It is much better to not write at all than to write badly for any public communications in a social recreational dance business.

Writing can be more easily contracted than some other tasks that need doing in a social recreational dance business. Writing can be done in the background; it is not a real-time task such as conversation.

Work Attributes

Work attributes include such things as knowledge, quality, initiative, judgment, etc.

Knowledge

Knowledge in various things can range from superior to non-existent.

• Where in your business is knowledge superior?
• Where is it very low?

Taking Responsibility

Taking responsibility can range from great to very little

• Where in your business is taking responsibility great?
• Where is it missing?

Ability to demonstrate willingness to assume and implement the responsibilities of the job

1. Actively seeks more responsibility
2. Accepts responsibility beyond normal requirements
3. Accepts normal responsibility
4. Resists acceptance of responsibility
5. Refuses to accept responsibility

Judgement

Judgement can be very good or very bad.

• Where in your business is judgement very good?
• Where is it sorely lacking?

Ability to reach logical, responsible, and timely decisions

1. Reasoning is logical, clear and concise; comes to sound conclusions quickly
   
2. Demonstrates the ability to apply careful reasoning to decision making
   
3. Generally uses good judgment
   
4. Is uncertain of own judgment; defers decisions to others
   
5. Poor   judgment

Adaptability

Adaptability can range from excellent to very poor

• Where in your business is adaptability great?
• Where is it weak?

Ability to accept change and adapt to a variety of assignments

1. Enthusiastically accepts suggestions and change
2. Willingly supports suggestions and change
3. Accepts suggestions and change
4. Has difficulty accepting suggestions and change
5. Unable to accept change

Availability & Attendance

Availability and attendance can range from extraordinary to not at all

• Where in your business is availability and attendance very good?
• Where is it low?

Ability to conform to work schedule and be available to perform responsibilities

1. Excellent attendance and availability record
2. Dependable; sensitive to need for availability
3. Average attendance and availability
4. Poor attendance, frequently absent, or unavailable without proper notice
5. Undependable, absent, or unavailable

Planning & Planning Skills

Planning ranges from well planned to no plan at all

• Where in your business is planning very good?
• Where is it not good?

Ability to ensure that activities are coordinated by setting goals, specifying objectives, anticipating contingencies, and utilizing allocated resources for the attainment of business goals

1. Demonstrates exceptional planning skills
2. Demonstrates effective planning skills
3. Demonstrates average planning skills
4. Demonstrates limited planning skills
5. Poor planner

Initiative

Initiative can range from extraordinary to none

• Where in your business is initiative high?
• Where is it low?

Ability to think and act without being instructed in great detail

1. Self-starting in all respects; constantly seeks new techniques and methods to improve
2. Completes work on own initiative; resourceful and alert
3. Demonstrates average initiative; proceeds alone in performance of routine duties and assignments
4. Needs excessive guidance to finish tasks
5. Needs constant supervision to start and complete tasks

Workload Management

Workload management ranges from superb to abysmal

• Where in your business is workload management good?
• Where is it not good?

Ability to meet deadlines and prioritize workload and to produce the required amount of work to meet the needs of the job

1. Greatly exceeds workload requirements; always on time or ahead of schedule
2. Exceeds requirements for output; frequently meets deadlines
3. Meets average workload requirements; usually meets deadlines
4. Barely meets minimum workload requirement; occasionally meets deadlines
5. Work output unsatisfactory; seldom meets deadlines

Budget & Budget Skills

No matter how tiny a business, some sense of 'budget' exists; it is not even at the level of necessity because it is simply unavoidable, like breathing; when a business is spending money there is at least an implicit budget, however loose it may be, in play.

• Where in your business is the budgetary sense quite good?
• Where is it not good?

Ability to prepare timely and accurate projections of financial requirements and manage allocated financial resources

1. Exceptional budget manager; maximizes use of available resources; exhibits a clear understanding of budget requirements and is sensitive to other needs
2. Exercises care in the preparation of the budget; projections and needs are well supported
3. Generally presents budgets in an acceptable time frame; projections are usually accurate and represent the needs of the business
4. Has difficulty managing budget; reports are seldom presented in an acceptable time frame; projections are seldom accurate
5. Poor budget manager

Quality of Work

Quality of work can range from excellent to very bad.

• Where is the quality of work high in your business ?
• Where is it low?

Ability to produce high quality and thorough work, whether self-initiated or supervised

1. Work is of exceptionally high quality
2. Work is of very good quality
3. Work is of average quality
4. Work requires correction
5. Work is unacceptable

Computer Operations & Computer-Basics Skills

Computer-basics operations is not a necessity. Not dealing with computers is an opportunity cost, not a downside cost.

Social recreational dance businesses not using a computer can still survive; but they won't be able to take advantage of many of the opportunities available.

A social recreational dance business without basic computer savvy is like a dance student who 'just doesn't get it'; they can sort of dance but their abilities and potentials are quite limited.

Teamwork & Cooperation

Teamwork and cooperation can range from superior to abysmal

• Where in your business is teamwork and cooperation excellent?
• Where is it poor?

Ability to work with colleagues in a collective effort to accomplish business goals and objectives

1. Very willing to cooperate with others; inspires positive work relations
2. Readily cooperates; promotes teamwork
3. Cooperates with others; willing to compromise
4. Tends to be uncooperative
5. Uncooperative; unable to work with others

Supervising & Supervising Skills

Working with contractors, vendors, employees and others on the delivery side of the business is a necessity; some of these relationships require supervision.

• Where in your business are supervisory skills quite good?
• Where are they not good?

Ability to provide direction and motivate people to perform at their highest level; to responsibly evaluate the work of their people and take appropriate action when necessary; to enforce business policies in a positive manner

1. Demonstrates exceptional supervisory skills; shows innovation in supervisory techniques
2. Demonstrates effective supervisory skills
3. Generally demonstrates acceptable supervisory skills
4. Has difficulty exercising supervisory skills
5. Does not demonstrate necessary supervisory skills